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writes:After reading a lot of "What are my chances.." type questions, I figured I'd delve into the little aspect of statistics of chance. A guy named Aaron Levenstein once said, "Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." Statistics always conceal the awful truth, that which is vital.Lets takes a look at some statistics of chance, of course I am going to be using the chances of conceiving a baby, for those who want to know your chances of being pregnant.Couples who have sex ever day: 25%Every other day: 22%Once a week: 10% source: http://www.parenttime.com/pregnancyarticles/chancesofconception.htmlWhat are those statistics saying? Benjamin Disraeli is quoted as saying, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." Lets examine the lie in these statistics...Lets assume you have unprotected sex once a week. That will give you a 10% chance of getting pregnant or basically 1 out of every 10 times.. So if you have sex once a week for 10 weeks, you are bound to become pregnant...which is WRONG! The reason stats like these lie is because they are part of a bigger whole.. a bigger piece of cake is out there. The 10% number is only an average of a group of couples having sex once a week. People don't conceive at the same rate as others. One couple may conceive on their first try like my wife, while others may take 40 weeks to become pregnant. In the end, it just averages out to 10%, so you might be on the good side of the statistic or the business end of the statistic. You may just be the one who even out the score. People like to use statistics to justify their decisions. They like to feel that they have calculated the risk. "Like dreams, statistics are a form of wish fulfillment." stated by J.Baudrillard . We all wish to believe that we'd be on the good side of the stat rather than the bad side. We want to believe that we can have unprotected sex and not conceive a child by stating that there is only a 5% chance of conceiving at the time of the act but the fact of the matter is that there needs to be some couples conceiving at that point to have that 5% chance. Of course, that 5% chance is a made up number I pulled out of a hat, but the fact remains that there is some sort of chance of conceiving a child at any point of the cycle with unprotected sex. If you don't want to be on the business end of the statistic of chance, you might want to rethink your decisions that you make.Of course, you can always say that "99% of statistics are made up," but when grand things are on the line, do you really want to take that chance?
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